电力系统概率仿真算法的适用性研究

Applicability of probabilistic simulation methods in the related analysis and evaluation of the power system

文章讨论了在电力系统概率安全经济评估中,基于蒙特卡罗抽样的非序贯仿真和序贯仿真的算法实现及相应的风险评估指标,分析了两种算法得到风险指标的差异及影响因素、风险指标的收敛性及准确性以及序贯仿真的应用范围。针对概率安全经济分析中的不同模块,提出适用的概率仿真算法,并提出在后续研究中尚待解决的关键问题。

The principles and algorithms of non-sequential simulation and sequential simulation which are based on the Monte Carlo sampling technique are described. With the two kinds of simulation algorithms,the risk indices are calculated and compared,and an analysis of the convergence and accuracy of the risk indices is also made.The sequential simulation algorithm is suitable for dealing with the time-variant load and constraints and the dynamic process. Appropriate simulation schemes are suggested for executing various modules in the probabilistic security evaluation and economic evaluation.