制度创新与农业发展

System Innovation and Agriculture Developing ——On Chinese Agricultural Development since the 16th Century

不少学者认为 ,中国自宋元以后 ,特别是明清时期 ,农业基本趋于停滞。然而实际情形并非如此。事实上 ,1 4～ 2 0世纪中期是中国农业历史上增长最快的时期之一 ,全国人口和粮食生产分别增长了 6倍。直到 1 9世纪初期中国的经济总量仍占世界的三分之一。中国农业之所以能够长期保持较高的生产率在于中国农民能够根据不断变化的人口资源状况和经济环境做出正确的判断和明智的选择。2 0世纪 50～70年代中国农业的公社化和机械化运动之所以不成功 ,就在于它们是忽略自然、经济等内在条件的要求 ,一味推行强制性变迁的结果。改革开放以来的成功经验为诱致性技术与制度变迁提供了新的历史证明。文章最后在对诱致性技术与制度变迁理论作进一步阐释的基础上提出了未来中国农业的发展战略。

It is generally considered that Chinese agriculture fell into stagnation after the Song dynasty. The argument is based on the allegation that there had been no change in agricultural implements since then. However, historical facts deny such a simple conclusion. From 1368 to 1820, Chinese cultivated land increased only threefold, but agricultural output grew 5.3 times and yields of per unit of cropland three-quarters, well keeping pace with the growth of population. The reason why China could have taken a lead in agriculture during the two thousand years before 19 th century lies in that Chinese farmers could make wise decisions according to the changing conditions of population, agricultural resource endowment, and the economic environment. The failure for the endeavor of communization and mechanization in 50-70s of the 20 th century lies in that it was just a strong political push regardless of the endogenous forces at the certain times. The great success of China's “Reform and Opening to the Outside World' since 1978 has given new evidence to the induced technological and institutional innovation. Based on these analyses, the present paper outlines the strategy of Chinese agricultural development in the future: to try hard to reduce agricultural labor force to 20% within 15-20 years both by way of accelerating the pace of urbanization and the development of tertiary industry; technologically to carry forward the tradition of intensive management of agriculture; and institutionally to privatize the land ownership and encourage farmers to set up local, regional and national unions to strengthen their power in politics and economy.