管道类连续系统可靠性分析与建模

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF PIPELINE

以管道———典型的连续系统为背景 ,研究以失效概率评估为目的的连续系统的离散化问题。首先 ,探讨连续系统中“元件”的定义、划分及其物理意义 ,研究元件的强度分布与元件划分之间的依赖性。继而 ,考察系统强度分布与由不同的元件划分得出的元件强度分布之间的关系 ,分析系统失效概率与元件失效概率之间的关系 ,以及不同尺度的元件划分对系统失效概率模型的影响。最后 ,建立元件间的失效相关性模型和相应的系统失效概率模型 ,展示连续系统失效概率与元件数量 (或系统尺度 )

With pipeline failure probability estimation as the scenario, the issues of continuous system discretization (element partition) and continuous system failure probability estimation was focused. First discussed was the partition of “element' of continuous system, as well as the effects of element partition on failure dependence among “elements' and system failure probability estimation. Based on the concept of virtual element, element strength distribution was expressed with respect to the different element partitions, relationship between system strength distribution and element strength distribution was analyzed, and the dependence among element failures was expounded. Finally, a dependent system failure probability model was presented and the change of system failure probability with the increase of element number was demonstrated. The result showed that there exist considerable degree of dependence among the failures of the virtual elements and there exists a limit for failure probability of typical continuous series system.