云贵高原对流回波的速度特征及其发展趋势

Velocity Feature of Convective Echo over Yungui Plateau and Its Developing Tendency

利用云南省2002年和2003年两年的多普勒雷达回波资料, 分析发现单体回波内的最大最小雷达径向速度和其在单体中的位置来确定这一单体是处于辐散或辐合, 或者是气旋式旋转或反气旋式旋转, 以此来预测单体回波的发展趋势。用这种方法预测单体回波的变化, 其准确率达到82%。

Using the Dopple radar echo data in Yunnan from 2002 to 2003, the velocity feature of convective echo was analyzed. It is found that, through the max-and-min radial velocity in cell echo and its position liying in the echo, a cell is defined to be in convergence and divergence or cyclone and anticyclone ratations, taking it to predict the developing trend of cell echo. The mothed is used to predict the chang trend of cell echo, its accurate rate reached to 82%.