中国西南山区的泥石流分区与预测

Division and Prediction of Debris Flow in Mountain Area of Southwest China

鉴于泥石流形成中起主导作用的因素不同, 泥石流预测时要着重考虑的因素应有所区别。根据这些控制因素, 同时依据西南地区的具体特点, 可将我国西南可能发生泥石流的地区分为降雨控制区、土源控制区、气温控制区及复合控制区。(1)降雨控制区土源极为丰富, 泥石流的预测主要考虑暴雨的作用; (2)土源控制区降雨丰富, 泥石流的预测应主要考虑土源的累计数量; (3)气温控制区内冰川泥石流分布较广, 区内泥石流的爆发主要受气温的影响; (4)复合控制区内, 水源和土源在较小的概率条件下满足泥石流的爆发, 故泥石流爆发频率较低。

The factors which dominates the occurrence of debris flow are different. What we pay attention to in researching and predictingthe occurrence of debris flow should not be the same. On the basis of these dominatingfactors and according to thecharacteristicin Southwest China, we can divide these areas into four parts, namely precipitation dominatingarea, earth source dominating area, temperature dominatingarea and compound factor dominatingarea. 1 In the precipitationdominating area, the soure of soil is abundantand the function of rainstorm should be mainly considered to predict the debrisflow. 2 In the earth source dominating area, precipitationis affluentand the function of accumulated earth amount should be mainly considered to predict the debris flow. 3 In temperature dominating area, glacier debris flows are widely distributed, which are affected by the fluctuating temperature. 4 In the compound factors dominating area, water source and soil source rarely satisfy the debris flow outbreak and the frequency appear low.