川滇地区GL值动态演化特征与强震预测

The Dynamic Evolution Characteristics of GL Value in Sichuan-Yunnan Region and Forecast of the Strong Earthquake

用地震活动非均匀度GL值作参数,使用1971～2000年期间川滇地区M≥2.5级地震资料进行了GL值的空间扫描。结果表明,川滇地区72％的M≥6级地震前1～2a,在未来震中周围均有GL值异常出现,用R值对其进行评分,可以通过检验。由典型震例图像给出了异常的主要特征。

Taking the heterogeneious GL value of the seismicity as the parameter, the data of M≥2.5 earthquakes from 1971 to 2000 in Sichuan-Yunnan region is used to perform spatial scan of GL values. The results show that the anomaly of GL values would appear around the coming epicenters 1 or 2 years before 72% of M≥6 earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. It can pass the check if using R value to grade. The major features for the anomalies are shown in the typical ease pattern.