中强地震前冀鲁豫交界区地下流体数据的合成缺信量特征研究

Research on Synthetic Short Informational Content Characteristics of Subsurface Fluids Data before Mid-strong Earthquakes in the Joint Area of Hebei, Shangdong and Henan Province

采用概率化预处理方法,把冀鲁豫交界区地下流体多种观测项目的观测值转化为概率值时间序列,在此基础上计算了该区地下流体构成的信息源系统合成缺信量值,分析了合成缺信量值变化与1983年山东菏泽Ms5.9级地震和1985年河北任县Ms 5.0级地震的关系,结果显示,在这两次中强地震前分别出现了明显的低值异常过程,中强地震都发生在低值处,震后恢复到高值。通过研究认为该区合成缺信量值降到0.52为发震前兆异常警戒线,并且离中强地震发生的时间越近,异常过程越明显;震级越大,异常时间越长。

Based on probabilistic preprocessing, the observation values for the observed items of subsurface fluid in the joint area of Hebei, Shandong and Henan Provinces have been transformed into probability and time sequence. The synthetic informational capacity of the information source system formed by subsurface fluid in the area is calculated. The relation between the variation of the synthetic informational capacity and Heze Ms 5.9 earthquake in Shandong Province, 1983 and Renxian Ms 5.0 earthquake in Hebei Province, 1985 is analyzed. The results show that there are obvious low value unusual courses respectively before the two events. Both the two events occurred at the low value moment. The change state of high value is recovered after the shocks. The study shows that 0.52 is the precursory anomalies alarm line for an earthquake in the area, and the closer to an earthquake, the more obvious of the unusual course decreasing; the greater the magnitude of the earthquake, the larger time of the unusual course decreasing.