剩余产量模型在不同渔业中的应用

PERFORMANCES OF SURPLUS PRODUCTION MODELS IN DIFFERENT FISHING SCENARIOS

剩余产量模型因其简单和所需数据较少的特点为渔业资源评估广泛采用。本文应用目前常用的四种剩余产量模型对五种渔业下的渔业生物种群及北大西洋箭鱼种群xiphiasgla dius评估效果作了比较。四种剩余产量模型在渔业 1中的评估效果较好 ,而在渔业 2中的效果较差 ;Schnute模型在充分捕捞的渔业 ,如渔业 3、4、5 ,尤其是在低生物量的渔业 3中评估效果较好 ,但不适合评估未充分捕捞的渔业。Walters Hilborn模型 (W H模型 )适用于各种渔业 ,尤其是渔业 1、4、5。在过度捕捞渔业中如渔业 3、4 ,模型对参数 q的估计较其它参数接近真值。在北大西洋箭鱼 (xiphiasgladius)渔业的评估中 ,W H模型对MSY的估计约为 14 0 0 0吨 ,接近于Prager(1996 )的结果。

Surplus production models, because of their simplicit and relatively undemanding of data, are attractive tools for many fish stock assessments. The paper compares the most popularly used surplus production models using simulated data and swordfish (xiphias gladius) fishery data in the North Atlantic Ocean. None of the four models could work well in scenario 2, an under-exploited stock.. However, the produced accurate results in scenario 1. The Schnute model worked well for fully-exploited stocks such as those in scenarios 3,4 and 5, especially for low biomass stocks such as scenario 3, but not suitable to under-exploited stocks such as scenario 2. The Walters-Hilborn model (W-H model) generally did well in all kinds of scenarios especially in scenrios 1,4, and 5. We have obtained accurate estimates of q for high fishing effort fisheries (scenarios 3,4). For swordfish (xiphias gladius) fishery, the estimation from the models produced and MSY of about 14500 tons, very near the result of Prager in 1996.