摘要
分析了新产品采用受人口收入变动和产品价格变动对技术扩散的影响,根据扩散模型,建立了耐用消费品销量的动态模型。利用IBM公司第二代计算机在1959年至1969年间的销售情况,对所提出的模型的拟合性能进行分析检验,表明该模型具有良好的拟合效果。
The paper analyzes the effect of using the income change and the price change in new products on technological diffusion. Based on the model of SHLOMO KALISH, the paper sets up a dynamic model for sales volume of durables. This paper analyzes the model's quality based on the consumption of IBM computers during 1959 to 1969. The results show that the model can accurately forecast the consumption of the durable products.
出处
《重庆工学院学报》
2003年第6期40-41,53,共3页
Journal of Chongqing Institute of Technology
关键词
技术扩散
人口数量
收入
technological diffusion
population
incom
