山东省农业气象灾害灾情统计特征与灰色关联分析

Statistic characteristics and grey correlation analysis of the devastation of agro-meteorological disasters in Shandong Province

基于《山东省农村统计年鉴》1991—2005年有关统计数据,对山东省15年的主要农业气象灾害及综合灾情进行了统计和灰色关联分析.结果表明,山东省农业气象灾害总体上呈年均受灾面积大、成灾率高且波动幅度大的特点;各主要气象灾害中,以旱灾年均受灾和成灾面积最大,低温冻害年均受灾和成灾面积最小;但从对种植业总产值的影响来看,又以涝灾影响为最大,其次是风雹,低温冻害与旱灾相对较小.说明仅从受灾或成灾面积不能准确判断某种气象灾害对农业生产的经济影响,还需要从农作物种植制度、价格等人为因素角度进行综合分析.

Based on relative statistical data in Rural Statistical Yearbook of Shandong Province from 1991 to 2005,this paper analyses main agro-meteorological disasters and their devastation to agriculture in the 15 years in Shandong Province by using grey correlation analysis.The results show that general disaster area of agro-meteorological disasters is broad,uncurbed rate high,fluctuation range great every year in Shandong Province;among main agro-meteorological disasters,disaster area of drought is biggest,freezi...