秃病蚤蒙冀亚种与长爪沙鼠密度的状态空间模型

Statespace model between Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi and population of Meriones unguiculatus

给出了一个描述秃病蚤蒙冀亚种Nosopsylluslaevicepskuzenkovi与长爪沙鼠Merionesunguiculatus密度的状态空间模型 ,模型为xt+1 =- 0 336xt+0 0 5 7yt +0 10 7zt,yt+1 =0 5 86xt - 0 36 9yt - 0 2 74zt,zt+1 =0 189xt +0 2 47yt - 0 30 9zt,其中xt,yt 和zt 分别为t月份的沙鼠密度 ,巢秃病蚤和体秃病蚤指数。结果表明 ,模型能够较好地描述野外秃病蚤蒙冀亚种与长爪沙鼠间的关系 。

This paper established a statespace simulation model of the monthly fluctuation patterns between the Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi and Meriones unguiculatus. It consisted of the following formulas: x t+1 =-0.336x t+0.057y t+0.107z t, y t+1 =0.586x t-0.369y t-0.274z t, z t+1 =0.189x t+0.247y t-0.309z t, where x t is the population density of M. unguiculatus, y t and z t are respectively related to the burrow nest and the body flea index of N. l. kuzenkovi at t month. The simulation results exhibited satisfactory agreement with field data. The population density of M. unguiculatus was the main factor affecting the burrow nest flea index of N. l. kuzenkovi.