山东省出口贸易与人均GDP增长的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Export and Per Capita GDP of Shandong Province

根据山东省1984-2007年的统计数据,运用协整方法,对出口与经济增长的实证分析结果表明,山东省出口与人均GDP均为一阶单整序列;运用Engle-Granger两步法建立的协整回归方程和误差修正模型表明,出口对人均GDP增长具有极强的拉动作用,二者之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系。

This paper studies the relationship between export and economic growth with Shandong province data covering the period of 1984-2007.The effect is examined by co-integration test.The result show that both export and per capita GDP are first difference integrated process.The regression model and error correction model between them are built by Engle-Granger two-step method,which shows a long and stable balance between export and per capita GDP.