中国食物安全基础的定量评估

Food security base in China: a quantitative evaluation approach

食物安全水平受粮食生产和供给能力、食物结构的多样化以及居民的收入水平或获取维持生命所需食物的能力等因素共同作用和影响。本文从食物安全的内涵出发 ,依据评价指标选取原则 ,选定了与食物安全密切相关的评价指标 ,包括粮食自给率、食物消费水平及居民消费水平等 ,构建了食物安全可持续性综合指数模型 ,计算了 195 0～ 1998年我国食物安全可持续性综合指数 ,对我国食物安全可持续状况进行了单因子和多因子综合评价。结果表明 :在 5 0年代我国处于食物基本安全状态 ,6 0～ 70年代处于食物不安全状态 ,80年代初期及至90年代已进入食物安全阶段。从 6 0年代开始食物安全水平逐年提高 ,80年代以来进入持续良性发展阶段。

Although the international societies, as well as countries throughout the world, have stressed food security and its conditions have been improved considerably since the 1970s, the future state will still be very severe because of population increase and agricultural productive condition deterioration. As to China, the productivity has been rising since the Reform and Openness. Chinese have gone out of the epoch of food shortage and the general level of food security has also improved substantially. But, there are still many factors restricting Chinese food security, such as population increase, productive resource shortage and so on. Therefore, to sustain China's food security is vital to realize Chinese social, economic and natural sustainability. Food productive and supply level, food structure diversity, habitant earning level or obtaining ability to maintain survival and other factors jointly affect food security level. In this paper, the meaning of food security is firstly discussed. Basing on fundamental factors influencing food security, the authors then select a set of evaluating indicators, formulate an integrated index evaluation model on food security. Using the evaluation model, food security integrated indexes covering 1950～1998 are calculated thirdly. A single-factor and multi-factor integrated evaluation on Chinese food security sustainability is carried out finally. The calculated results show that China was in a generally secure state of food in the 1950s, in an insecure state of food in the 1960s and the 1970s, and had entered a steady secure state of food in the 1980s through to the 1990s. Since the 1960s food security level in China has been rising year after year and since the 1980s a sustainable development trend has been maintained.