强震概率增大时段判定法TIP-M8在广东省及邻区的应用

Application of Time of Increased Probability of Strong Earthquake Method (TIP-M8) in Guangdong and its neighboring area

用强震概率增大时段判定法M8方法判断近年来广东省及邻区几个主要震区 (粤闽赣地区、粤桂琼地区、珠江三角洲地区 )的中期地震发展趋势 ,结果显示 1997年 5月福建永安 5 2级地震 ,1999年 5月海南 5 1级地震 ,震前约 1年半 ,地震所在区域均出现了强震概率增大时段。而珠江三角洲地区的计算结果未发现强震概率增大时段。

Applied the Time of Increased Probability of Strong Earthquake Method (TIP-M8) to several seismic regions of Guangdong province after 1995.They are Yueguiqiong , Yuemingan and Pearl River Delta region. The results show that in Yuemingan and Yueguiqiong region, one year about before the earthquake M S5 2 occurred in Yongan (May, 1997) and the earthquake M S5 0 occurred Hainan (May, 1999), there is the time of increased probability of strong earthquake in each event. The time of increased probability of strong earthquake has not occurred in Pearl River Delta region from 1998 to 2001.