黑河干流洪水预报模型研究

Flood Forecast Model of the Main Stream of the Heihe River

黑河干流上游区水文站点稀少 ,区间部分支流洪水过程无法控制 ,中游区河流沿程大量引水灌溉、取水口甚多用水量无法获得 ,使得以水量平衡原理为基础的洪水演算方法难以应用。针对上述情况 ,笔者应用系统水文模型理论并对其进行了改进。通过引入系统存贮变量 ,建立了一个新的黑河干流洪水预报模型—河道洪水演算模型。经 1996年 ,1998年两次特大洪水试报检验 ,结果表明该模型的预报精度较高 ,对黑河干流防洪减灾、水利工程科学管理以及水资源优化配置具有重要的作用。

Heihe River is a secondary greater inland river in the arid zone of Northwest China. Its main stream, with a length of 821 km,originates in the Qilian Mountain and flows through the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province and enters into the western part of Inner Mongolia plateau. Because the hydrometric stations are few in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin, the floods in the reaches can not be controlled. In the middle reaches area many water formation for irrigation of the river also can not be obtained. It is very difficulty to put it into use the usual floods forecast methods that based on water quantity balance principle. So the system hydrology model theory is improved and introduced into the flood forecast in the main stream of the Heihe River. A new floods forecast model called river way flood figures model has been presented. The model calibration accuracy reaches 95% or more. The application in the forecast of two strong storm floods in 1996 and 1998 showed that the maximum prediction error was -11.1% . These will play significant role in the floods prevention and disaster reduction of the Heihe River, in the scientific management of the hydraulic structure and in the optimal disposition of water resources.