旱育秧技术扩散模型与实证分析

The Diffusion Model Analysis of Rises Rice Seedling on Land

本文以旱育秧技术推广扩散为例 ,通过分析该技术的扩散机制建立相应的数学模型 ,用控制论的方法对该技术的扩散系统的能控性、能达性、能观测性、稳定点等进行讨论 ,进而分析其经济意义 ,揭示出技术扩散过程中来自相关方面诸多因素影响技术扩散的复杂机制。并对该技术的推广前景做了短期预测和政策评价 ,提出了相应的意见和建议。

This paper takes the technology of raise rice seedling on land of suining,Sichuan Province as the example,through analyzing the diffusion machine-processed of the technology of build mathematical model,using cybernetics to analyze the economy meanings. And makes a short-term prediction about the technology's diffusion future and give some ideas and suggestions.