试论我国旅游业周期波动的复杂性和不规律性——兼与匡林先生商榷

On the Complexity and Unregularity of the Developing Cycle in China's Tourism Industry

我国近 2 0年来旅游业的发展波动是政府直接干预和政策诱导的结果。这种波动与市场经济制度条件下的商业周期不可同日而语 ,简单套用研究市场经济中经济周期的方法无助于客观科学地认识我国旅游业的运行特点和机理。事实上 ,我国旅游业的发展具有明显的经济转轨期的过渡性特征。旅游业的市场波动也非经济因素所致 ,因而是不可逆的 。

China's tourism industry grows out of the old commanding economic institution and has been developing in the transitional period from old to new market economic institution that is far from reaching or approaching the institutional platform of market economy so far. The development fluctuation of China's tourism industry in the past two decades resulted from the direct intervention of the government and policy guidance. It has nothing in common with the business cycle under the market economy. Thus, the economic cycle theory and research method in the market economy cannot be simply applied to understand the features of China's tourism development. In fact, the development of China's tourism development is of typical transitional characteristics in the period of economic transition. The market fluctuation is not caused by economic factors and therefore irreversible, thus giving no signs of regular cycle.