基于系统概念的香港住宅产业发展趋势研究

A System - Based Study on the Development Trend of Housing Industry in Hong Kong

用系统动力学方法研究香港城市住宅产业发展是一项新的尝试。本文通过建立一个系统动力学模型，对香港住宅产业这样一个社会经济系统的趋势性发展做些探讨。我们致力寻找出这个系统中各类因素的互相影响与互相制约的动态关系，并将主要的关系尽可能地做出定量的描述。经成功构造模型后，利用计算机仿真模拟得出政策决策者关心的趋势性结论。在某个指定的时间区间内，这些结论的指导除了会使住宅产业发展有更明确的方向性外，同时也是对政策决策的一种重要的支持。

Using system dynamics theory to analyse and study housing development in Hong Kong is a new at- tempt. This paper introduces the findings of a recent study on the development trends of the housing industry, which is based on the system concepts and a system dynamics model. It investigates the quantitative relation- ship of a variety of factors that affect each other and the housing industry as a whole. By implementing the model in a simulation package, the development trends are analysed in considerable depth. These results provide a clear future direction of the housing industry, which would assist the policy - makers in both the public and the private sectors in their strategic decisions.