第一代小地老虎危害程度的投影寻踪回归预测模型的研究

A Study on Forecasting Model of PPR on Damage Level of First Generation of Agrotis ypsilon Rottemberg

用投影寻踪回归模型 ,对第一代小地老虎危害程度进行预测。模型的历史拟合 10 0 %合格 ,预留 5a试报也 10 0 %合格。

By using the PPR model ,the damage level of the first generation of Agrotis ypsilon (Rottemberg) is forecasted.The historical(1964～1985) fitting rate is 100%,and the forecast(1986～1990) fitting rate is 100%.