基于案例推理的金融危机预警支持系统

Case-based Reasoning for Financial Crises Predicting Support System

传统方法与模型预测金融危机有较大的局限性，该文提出用基于案例推理方法预测金融危机的思想，并给出基于案例推理的金融危机预警系统 ＣＢＲＦＣＰＳＳ的原型，研究了 ＣＢＲＦＣＰＳＳ中的关键技术：案例的知识表达、案例检索和案例学习等。文章最后给出了应用原型系统进行金融危机预警的部分研究成果。

This paper presents a new method,Case-based reasoning (CBR),in the financial crises forecasting area,due to the limitation of the traditional economic forecasting way.A soft prototype system of CBRFCPSS is introduced.Three critical techniques in CBRFCPSS are discussed:Knowledge Representation, Retrieval of similar cases in case library and case learning.The proposed approach is demonstrated by applications of CBRFCPSS.