供给、需求和外部冲击——中国房地产业发展驱动因素的实证分析

Supply, Demand and External Impacts:Empirical Analysis on Driving Factors of Developmentof Real Estate Industry in China

研究目的:探讨中国房地产业发展中三类驱动因素的作用。研究方法:实证分析法。研究结果:需求是拉动中国房地产业高速增长的重要因素,需求主要受个人住房抵押贷款影响,但房地产中有相当一部分虚假需求;成本因素是影响房地产供给的重要原因,在成本因素中起主要作用的是建材成本和资金成本;房地产投资对外部冲击具有显著的正向响应。研究结论:房地产宏观调控应立足于压缩住房的投资性需求和非理性需求,降低房地产开发商的运营成本以扩大供给,选择谨慎和恰当的干预以提高干预绩效。

The purpose of the paper is to discuss roles of three driving factors of real estate industry development in China. Method of empirical analysis was employed. The results show that demand is an important factor driving the rapid growth of real estate industry in China and influenced mainly by personal housing mortgage loans, however, there are still fairly false demands in the real estate industry. Cost is the key factor influencing the supply of real estate, which is determined mainly by the costs of const...