郑州局地强对流天气的形成机制与预报方法

Formation Mechanisms and Forecasting of Severe Convective Weather in Zhengzhou

应用常规报文和1°×1°的NCEP再分析资料,采用天气学分析和物理量诊断方法,对2004年郑州市出现的4次强对流天气的天气形势、单站要素特征和一些物理参数进行了深入的分析。结果表明:西北气流或华北低涡时,存在着低层辐射增温和高层冷平流降温这一对流不稳定能量迅速增强的机制,有利于对流天气发生。地面提前1~3 h出现的中尺度辐合线是强对流发生的触发机制。单站sθe的垂直空间分布特征、大气排熵指数、垂直风切变、大气可降水量等参数的量值可判断强对流天气的类型。

An analysis is made of the main causes,weather patterns,single-station influencing factors and physical parameters of four severe convective weather events in 2004 in Zhengzhou by using routine meteorological data and 1°×1° reanalysis data of NCEP.The results show that it is favorable to the occurrence of severe convective weather that there is radiative warming at lower levels and cold-advection cooling at upper levels while under the control of northwest air flow or the North China low,in which convective...