R/S分析在水库径流丰枯变化趋势预测中的应用

Application of R/S Analysis on the Wet and Low Water Change Tendency Forecast of Reservoir′s Runoff

根据水库径流丰枯变化的实测资料,利用R/S分析的原理和方法计算了H指数,建立了R(i)/S(i)与i的关系式,对水库径流的丰枯变化趋势进行了预测分析.结果表明,利用R/S分析进行水库径流丰枯变化趋势预测是一条比较有效的途径.

According to the measured data of wet and low water change of reservoir runoff,H exponent is calculated,and relational expression of R(i)/S(i) and i is established,and change tendency of wet and low water of reservoir runoff is forecasted by the means of the principle and method of R/S analysis.Its result is relatively good.Hence this is a relatively efficient way of change tendency forecast of wet and low water of reservoir runoff.