非线性时间序列井间连通性分析方法

Inter-well connectivityanalysis based on nonlinear time series

基于非线性时间序列的油藏动态分析方法是把油藏视为一个黑箱非线性系统。建立了单井非线性自回归模型和井组非线性自回归滑动平均模型。前者适用于没有进行注水开发的新油藏,后者是针对已经进行注水开发油藏的时间序列模型。在井组非线性自回归滑动平均模型中,注入井对地层注水视为对油藏系统的输入信号,生产井的产油量、产水量、含水率和井底压力视为对输入信号的系统响应。这种非线性模型通过支持向量机的方法建立起来,然后通过对这个非线性系统的敏感性分析确定生产井和注水井的动态连通关系,并且根据模型可以预测下一个时间段生产井的动态响应。利用该方法针对大庆油田20口井的动态进行了分析,结果表明,85%的预测结果和实际地质认识是符合的。

The analytical method of the performance of oil reservoir based on nonlinear time series regards the oil reservoir as a black box. Nonlinear autoregressive model of single well and nonlinear au-loregressive moving average model of well group were proposed. The first model is applicable in the reservoirs without any injection.The second model is applicable in water-drive reservoirs.In the second model,water injection of the injector to formation is treated as input signal to the reservoir system,oil producti...