香蕉产业组织模式绩效的分析与预测——基于多变量随机系数累加多层统计模型

Analysis and Forecast of Banana Industry Organization Achievement——Base on Accumulated Multilevel Statistical Mode of Multivariate Random Coefficient

运用累加多层统计模型对香蕉组织模式中仅有2个有效收入数据的"香蕉专业户+蕉农+专业协会"模式的单位面积(667 m2)收入进行了预测。结果表明:2007年预测收入4916元/667m2,与实际收入4925元/667m2基本相符。这种方法适于少数据预测。

The only two valid data in banana organization model of 'banana specialized households + banana farmers +professional associations' were forecast by using multilevel statistical models of multivariate accumulated.The result indicates the forecast revenue,4 916 yuan per 667 m2,in accordance with the practical revenue,4 925 yuan per 667 m2,in 2007.This method is suitable for forecasting a few data.