三江源区径流量变化特征与人为影响程度

Evaluation of Changes in Runoff and the Effect of Human Activities in the Source Area of Three Rivers

应用降水量、气温、蒸发量和径流量的实测统计数据,运用Excel,SPSS软件进行多元线性回归分析,研究三江源区天然径流量变化,并评价其人为影响程度。结果表明:该区径流量变化具有超前性,是径流变化的启动区,气温和降水量具有增加径流作用,蒸发量具有削减径流作用,1982年以前径流量的人为影响较小。1983年后径流的人为影响程度具有增大趋势,吉迈和唐乃亥人为影响程度都低于50%,黄河沿多数年份人为影响程度为50%~80%。黄河源区影响径流量变化的主导因素在东部,是自然因素;西部是人为因素,即径流量的人为影响存在西强东弱的区域差异,越靠近源头地区径流量的人为影响越强烈。

This study was conducted to evaluate changes in the natural runoff volumes in the source area of the three rivers,the Yangtze River,Yellow River and Lantsang River,based on the measured precipitation,air temperature,evaporation and runoff volume in their source area.To accomplish this,Excel and SPSS were used to conduct multiple linear regression analysis,and to evaluate the degree of artificial effect on the change of natural runoff volume.The results revealed that the change in runoff volume occurs first ...