甘肃、内蒙古西部与青海近代积温变化趋势分析

Analysis on the Variation of Accumulated Temperature in West Gansu Province,Inner Mongolia and Qinghai Province during the Period from 1960 to 2000

利用甘肃、内蒙古西部与青海省45个站点的月平均气温资料,计算了1960-2000年稳定通过0℃(T≥0℃)和稳定通过10℃(T≥10℃)的积温,并对其变化趋势及突变进行了分析。结果表明:研究区的积温存在明显的变化趋势,20世纪80-90年代以来,积温呈波浪式上升;积温的大小与持续期的长短关系密切,两者变化趋势相吻合;且由于各区地理位置的不同,积温和持续期由北向南呈现梯度变化,曲线变化趋势大致相同,而Ⅲ区(青海南部)的积温与持续期变化趋势则明显不同于Ⅰ区(内蒙古、甘肃)、Ⅱ区(青海)。最后采用Mann-Kendall方法对Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ区内T≥0℃及T≥10℃的积温变化进行了突变分析,得出此3个区突变时间大致发生在1996年附近,其后气温上升趋势加快。

IIn this paper,the accumulated temperatures≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ in west Gansu Province,west Inner Mongolia and Qinghai Province during the period from 1960 to 2000 are calculated using the monthly air temperature data observed by 45 meteorological stations in these regions,and their change trends and mutations are analyzed.The results are as follows:(1) The 5-year moving averages of accumulated temperature reveal that the air temperature in all the region I(Inner Mongolia and Gansu Province),region II(Qinghai Pro...