棉花生长期的气候变化对棉花生产的影响——以新疆昌吉回族自治州为例

Climatic Change in the Period from April to October for the Last 45 Years in the Primary Cotton-growing Region of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture and its Effect on Cotton Production

利用新疆昌吉回族自治州主要棉区4个代表站1961-2005年4~10月的气象资料及昌吉市近10年棉花发育期观测资料,分析气候变化对当地棉花生产的影响。主要表现在:气候变化导致45年来终霜期提早、初霜期推迟;而近10年平均初、终霜出现日期均较稳定,对棉苗生长影响不大,对部分年份的棉花品质可能造成一些影响。其次,10℃界限温度初日自20世纪90年代以后逐渐提早;10℃终日自20世纪70年代以来变化不大。45年来,10℃界限温度持续天数呈逐年延长的趋势,约2 d/10 a,尤其近10年最长。≥10℃积温也呈增高趋势,为57.4℃.d/10 a,且近10年为热量条件最好的时期,不仅对当地棉花的生长发育有利,而且使昌吉州棉花种植界限发生了明显变化,棉花种植区域向东扩展了100 km,适宜种植海拔高度也提高了200 m左右。但是近10年降水分布极不均匀以及日照时数减少的事实对棉花生产有不利影响。

In this study,climate change in the primary cotton-growing region of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,Xinjiang during the cotton growing season in different decades was analyzed using the meteorological data observed at 4 representative meteorological stations from 1961 to 2005,with a focus on the last decade.The effect of climate change on cotton production in the prefecture was then evaluated.The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation in the prefecture have increased during the growing ...