利用震兆曲线非线性特征估计川滇区域地震危险性时间

Using the nonlinear characteristics of change curves of seismicity parameters to predict next the risk time of earthquake in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces

对川滇及邻区特定构造区域地震活动的时间、强度和空间分布进行了分析,结合研究区1988年以来的8次地震发生前ML≥3.0级地震活动指标缺震(L值)、频度(N值)、活动度(S值)和危险度(D值)的曲线非线性特征进行了分析,给出了下一次地震危险性时间的估计方法。川滇及相邻地区的地震模型ML≥3.0级群体地震活动的震兆曲线,能够很好地描述川滇区域地震活动强、弱变化的异常信息,临震信号是地震失稳的标志,有震异常和临震前的短临异常反映出的时间变化非线性曲线特征能够有效地给出地震发生的时间判断。

In this paper we use seismological indexes,such as seismic gap(L-value),seismic frequency(N-value),seismicity(S-value) and Danger(D-value),to summarize temporal and special the nonlinear characteristics.These indexes are calculated by the seismic data of earthquakes occurred in special geological structures in both Sichuan and Yunnan provinces with the magnitude scale equal to or greater than MS3.0.According to the curve change patterns of these seismological indexes,we try to predict the risk period of an ...