煤炭产业动态投入产出多目标优化模型

Multi-object optimization models of coal industry dynamic input-output

文章以煤炭产业的适度发展为出发点,在考虑中国经济发展速度与综合经济平衡的前提下,基于动态投入产出分析技术以及多目标规划理论建立了煤炭产业多目标动态投入产出优化模型。并根据各产业煤炭消耗变化规律提出了应用马尔科夫概型修订直接消耗系数的方法,同时应用计量经济学方法对中国未来十年的煤炭消耗量作出了预测,为准确求解该模型提供了依据。

In view of appropriate development of the coal industry on the premise of considering economic development speed of our country and comprehensive economic equilibrium,based on the multi-object dynamic input-output optimization models and multi-object optimization model,the thesis sets up the coal industry multi-object dynamic input-output optimization model and raise the method of Markov probability model to revise direct consumption coefficient reflecting coal consumption variation of different industries,and use the econometrics method to make a prediction of the coal consumption of the following ten years of our country,offering basis for solving this model accurately.