城市化、粮食生产与农民收入增长关系研究——基于湖北省长期时序数据的检验

Study on the Correlation between Urbanization, Grain Production and the Growth of Peasant’s Income——An Empirical Test from Hubei’s Time Series

根据湖北省1949年以来的长期时序数据,运用协整分析及Granger因果关系检验法分析城市化、粮食生产与农民收入增长之间的因果关系。研究结果表明:(1)城市化和粮食生产从长期看均是农民收入持续增长的重要因素,农民收入的长期增长也会促进粮食产量增长,但对城市化发展无太大影响;(2)短期内城市化发展和粮食生产对农民收入没有太大影响。在此基础上,得到若干政策启示。

Based on Hubei’s time series data from 1949 year, this article analyses the correlation between urbanization, grain production and the growth of peasant’s income using the methods of co-integration analysis and granger causality test. It is turned out that: 1) In the long time, both urbanization and grain production play important roles in promoting peasant’s income, and the growth of peasant’s income gives rise to the promotion of grain output in return, but has no effect on urbanization; 2) In the short t...