长期贸易逆差、经济增长与经济周期性波动——1816-1993年英国经济发展史分析

Long-term Trade Deficit,Economic Growth and Cyclical Economic Fluctuations—the United Kingdom's Economic Development History Analysis of 1816-1993

英国近200年的经济发展史表明:禀赋、技术决定了分工方式和贸易结构;长期贸易逆差和长期经济增长负相关,贸易对经济增长的贡献度远远小于其他指标的贡献度;影响英国经济周期性波动的主要因素是科技革命、世界战争和经济危机,科技革命对经济增长的推动快速迅猛并且伴有经济结构质的变化,经济危机和世界战争对物价指数、失业率的影响恰好相反;经济增长过程必然伴随着经济危机和经济周期性波动,这是经济发展的内在基本规律。

Britain s economic development history of nearly 200 years shows that:endowment and technology determines the division of labor and trade structure;long-term trade deficit and long-term economic growth are negatively correlated, and the contribution of trade to economic growth is far less than the contribution of other indicators;the major factors that impact the cyclical fluctuations in the British economy are scientific and technological revolution, the world wars and the economic crisis.Scientific and te...