我国原木进口与木质林产品出口关系的实证分析——基于协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between China's Imports of Logs and Wood Forest Product Exports—Based on Cointegration Analysis and Granger Causality Test

本文根据协整理论和格兰杰因果检验方法,对我国原木进口和木质林产品出口进行了实证分析。研究表明,我国原木进口与木质林产品出口之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,同时木质林产品出口与原木进口之间存在单项的格兰杰因果关系。据此,本文认为短期内减少对进口原木的消耗是我国木材产业亟待解决的重要问题,而从长期来看实现我国木材产业的资源基础转换才是解决对进口木材依赖的根本途径。在此基础上,提出了实现我国木材产业可持续发展的对策建议。

According to cointegration theory and Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the relationship between China s imports of logs and wood forest product exports empirically.The research shows that there is long-term and stable balance between China s imports of logs and wood forest product exports, and Granger causality exists between wood forest product exports and imports of logs.Accordingly, the paper concludes that it is an important issue for China s timber industry to reduce the consumption of impor...