青海湖水位动态趋势预测

Variation tendency prediction of dynamic water level in Qinghai Lake

为预测青海湖水位下降趋势及其对湖泊生态的影响,本文对青海湖主要来水项——入湖径流采用一阶周期性自回归模型进行人工生成系列,并依据径流与降水和蒸发的频率对应关系,以及未来暖干气候条件下降水和蒸发的可能变化量,建立了相应的降水和蒸发序列。通过长系列水量平衡计算表明,青海湖水位仍会继续下降,2030年是未来50年序列中水位最低的时期,最低水位将达3191.35m,此后水位开始小幅度回升并逐渐趋稳。同时,在历史平均气候条件下对青海湖水位进行了预测,预计2035年后水位的持续下降速率开始变缓并趋于稳定,2100年左右稳定在3192.2m。

A one-step periodical auto regression stochastic model is applied to generate the total surface runoff series flowing into the Qinghai Lake.According to the corresponding frequency relationship between runoff and precipitation as well as evaporation the corresponding series of precipitation and evaporation are established,with the possible variation of precipitation and evaporation under the condition of warm and dry climate taken into account.The calculation result of water balance of long series shows tha...