试井设计风险评价

Risk Evaluation of Well Test Design

由于对油气井和地层参数估计困难 ,设计目标与实施结果可能存在较大的差异 ,导致测试资料的可解释性差。笔者讨论油气井测试设计过程涉及的不确定性问题 ,采用蒙特卡洛模拟评价试井设计风险 ,通过测试模拟器对设计参数产生解释诊断曲线 ,以人工智能方法识别诊断曲线和评价测试合格率 ,确定出测试合格率的概率分布 ,从而指导优选设计方案。

Because it is difficulty for estimating parameters of well and formation., it is different between design goal of well testing and results of test and results in interpretation error of data .The paper discusses uncertainty in well test design and uses Monte Carlo simulation to evaluation risk of well test design through simulator generation diagnose curve for design parameters. In the paper, it is used by AI method recognize curve and evaluation successful rate.