全球气候变化对中国自然灾害的可能影响

Possible Impacts of Global Climate Change on Natural Disasters of China

随着人口增多和社会经济的发展,全球CO_2、CH_4、N_2O等气体的排放增加所引起的温室效应,预期本世纪的全球变暖较20世纪更为强烈。讨论了全球气候变化及其对中国自然灾害的可能影响。结果表明,本世纪全球气候进一步变暖将可能导致我国北方干旱趋势仍将延续。南方雨量增加特别是暴雨和台风的增加,会使洪涝灾害扩大加剧。沿海地区由于海平面上升,海岸带灾害主要是风暴潮呈现加剧趋势、农林病虫害、滑坡与泥石流、水土流失与土壤侵蚀灾害也将发展,唯寒冻灾害可能大幅度减轻。面对全球气候变化,我国政府及科学界应加强科学研究,积极参与国际合作,采取减轻、防范和适应措施,以减少经济损失。

This paper expects that the global change of the 21st century will be stronger than the one of the twentieth century. This is because the effects of greenhouse will be caused by increasing of draining off greenhouse gases such as CO_2,CH_4,N_2O, etc, in the globe with increase of population and development of society and economy of the world. The possible impacts of global climate change on natural disasters of Chain have been discussed in this paper and some results have been obtained. Research shows that the global climate warming gradually of the 21st century could lead to that drought in northem China may be continued to the end of this century, increasing rain fall, especiallyrain storm and rain of typhoon in southem China will be becoming the level of disaster of floods more serious; due to sea level rise in the coastal plains, the disaster of coast zone, mainly windstorm tide will be increasing and becoming strong; agricultural and forest disasters and insect pests,landslide and debris flow, soil and water loss as well as soil erosion will be augmenting; only cold and frost disasters will be decreasing to a great extent. Facing global climate change, our government and scientific circles should strength science research, participate in international cooperations positively adopt measures of decreasing and being on guard national disasters as well as adapting global climate change, in order to reduce economic loss.