乡村债务的规模、结构、风险及效应分析

A Review of Scale,Structure,Risk and Effect of Rural Debts

本文依据实地调查资料 ,从债务规模、债权人结构、用途结构、期限结构和利率水平等方面对乡村债务问题进行描述 ,并借鉴国家外债分析指标对乡村债务的风险状况做出判断。本文的基本结论有 :乡村债务规模大、增长快 ;正规金融机构是乡村债务的主要债权人 ,但私人债权比重逐步增加 ;乡村债务用途多样 ,办企业和公共基础设施是主要内容 ;乡村借款多为短期 ;乡村债务的风险在增加 ;适度债务有利于乡村发展 ,但过度债务则有不利影响。

The article describes the scale,the structure of loaner and usage and term,and the interest rate of rural debts based on survey. With the index of national foreign loans,it looks into the risk of rural debts. The basic conclusions are the followings: the scale of rural debts is very large and grows fast;the formal finance organizations are main loaners,but the proportion of private loans increases gradually;the main debts are for enterprises and public infrastructure;most of rural loans are short-term;the risk of rural debts is increasing;contrary to moderate debts,excessive debts have adverse effect on rural development