禽流感对养禽业和农民收入的影响

The Impact of Bird Flu to China Poultry Industry and Farmer's Income

20 0 3年“SARS”影响了我国畜牧业生产的增长幅度和农民畜牧业生产收入。2 0 0 4年伊始 ,在亚洲禽流感严重爆发的情况下 ,我国先后有 1 6个省市自治区发生禽流感。禽流感不同于“SARS” ,它主要危害禽类生产 ,波及畜产品整体生产形势。本文通过建立农户畜产品生产收入模型 ,系统预测和分析了禽流感对我国 2 0 0 4年畜产品生产增长幅度、农民畜牧业收入以及畜产品相关产业的影响程度 ,并提出了控制疫病、发展生产的措施。

In 2003,“SARS”epidemic slowed down the growth rate of China livestock production and reduced farmer's income,which profited from livestock farming. At the initial time of 2004,Bird flu attack ASIA and 16 provinces were reported outbreak of Bird flu in China. Bird flu is difference from the“SARS”epidemic,mainly cause heavy maturity of birds,make a bad inference to other livestock production, and damage consumer's confidence. By the methodology of construction of farmer's livestock income model,this paper scenario the impact of bird flu to livestock production and the income of farmer's in 2004