滑坡灾害区划系统研究

Systematic studies on landslide hazard zonation

本文系统地介绍了滑坡灾害区划研究的国内外研究现状 ,提出减灾的关键在于从区域上做好预防研究的观点 ,并阐述了滑坡灾害与风险术语统一化的重要性 ,由此提出滑坡灾害区划的核心是 :灾害、易损性和风险三要素的综合分析。文章进一步提出了灾害区划研究的两种基本途径 ,破坏概率法和信息分析法 ,把传统的滑坡单体稳定性分析延伸到以 Monte- Carlo方法的概率模拟分析 ,在信息论原理的基础上 ,建立了滑坡灾害分区的信息分析系统 ,从而建立了多因素分析的滑坡灾害预测分区方法 ,并结合我国多滑坡的重庆市进行了滑坡灾害预测区划的应用研究。

It is presented in the paper of recent landslide hazard zonation in the world. For the reduction of landslide hazard, the key point is to take regional predictive studies. Meanwhile the unified understanding of terms hazard and risk is also important for landslide hazard analysis, in which hazard, vulnerability, and risk basically become the analytical points. Two fundamental approaches, rupture probability and information analysis, are proposed in the paper, which are verified in urban area of Chongqing City. Simulation in terms of Monte\|Carlo technique is used for probability analysis that is the extension of traditional equilibrium analysis. Information analysis system is established to determine the information value by individual factor or multiple factors group.