中国地震预报探索与实践

Exploration and practice of earthquake prediction in China

对我国地震预测预报 30年来的历史做了简要回顾 ,主要概述了近年来我国地震预测预报研究与实践中取得的重要进展。中国地震预测预报 ,特别是“地震重点监视防御区”的确定、年度中期预报、短临预报到震后趋势判定都有较大进展 ,取得了明显的社会效益和经济效益 :1 1 996～ 1 999年我国发生的重要影响的 6级以上地震 ,均发生在 1 996年 1月确定的“地震重点监视防御区”内 ;2年度中期预报水平近年来平均提高 1 0个百分点 ;3对近年发生的有重大社会影响的 6级以上强震 ,震后趋势判断迅速、正确 ,取得突出的社会减灾实效 ;4对中强地震发生后后续强震的短临预报取得明显进展 ,曾较成功地预报了 1 995年 7月 1 2日中缅边境云南孟连 7.3级强震、1 997年 4月新疆伽师 4次 6级以上强震以及 1 998年 1 1月 1 9日云南宁蒗 6.2级地震 ;此外还预报了 1 996年 1 2月 2 1日四川巴塘 -白玉 5.5级、1 999年 1 1月 2 9日辽宁岫岩 5.4级等多次 5级以上地震 ;5在国外大震现场的国际合作中 ,开创了震后考察与趋势判定的成功范例 ;6总结了取得进展的科学基础。

A brief review on over 30 year earthquake forecast and prediction in China is done, mainly on the recent important developments in practice. The obvious social and economic benefits are obtained through the earthquake forecast and prediction in China, especially through the determination of 'the focal monitoring and prevention area of earthquake', yearly medium term prediction and short term and imminent prediction to post seismic tendency determination. ①All M S ≥6.0 earthquakes with important influences in 1996 1999 occurred in the focal monitoring and prevention area of earthquake determined in January 1996. ②Yearly medium term prediction level is raised averagely 10 percent in recent years. ③The post seismic tendency determination, which really reduced the hazard after strong earthquakes, is done rapidly and exactly after some M S ≥6.0 strong earthquakes that influence the society significantly. ④Short term prediction to impending earthquake for some following strong shocks after the moderate strong earthquakes is improved. The successful cases for earthquake prediction include Menglian earthquakes in Yunnan (July 12, 1995, M S  7.3) on the border between China and Myanma, the 4 Jiashi earthquakes in Xinjiang (April 1997, M S ≥6.0) and Ninglang earthquake in Yunnan (November 19, 1998, M S 6.2). In addition, many earthquakes with M S ≥5.0, such as Batang Baiyu earthquake in Sichuan (December 21, 1996, M S 5.5), Xiuyan earthquake in Liaoning (November 29, 1999, M S  5.4) are also predicted. ⑤The investigation and post seismic tendency determination of strong earthquakes in foreign countries has shown good results and created a good example for international collaboration with foreign scientists in the earthquake stricken regions. ⑥The scientific bases, observation bases and the technical ideas for the development in earthquake prediction have been summed.