装备大修经费需求预测与分配模型

Study on Models of forecasting and Allocating Armament Overhaul Cost

装备大修经费需求预测与分配是装备使用管理中的重要问题。通过对装备大修经费相关问题的全面研究 ,建立了宏观预测模型 ,对以往研究的微观预测模型进行了改进 ,建立了新的预测模型。结合使用数据 ,对新模型进行了验证 ,结果表明 ,新模型的精度大为提高。同时提出了装备大修经费的宏观分配模型 ,运用该模型进行经费分配 ,能提高装备大修的效 /费比 ,为管理部门科学决策提供了依据。

Forecasting and allocating armament overhaul cost is a significant problem of the management for using armament. First, this thesis makes a general describe and study on correlative problems of armament overhaul cost. Based on it, macroscopical forecast models are founded. Then, former microcosmic forecast models are improved, and new microcosmic forecast models are founded. Furthermore, the new models are validated with practical data, and the result shows that new models are more accurate. At the same time, allocating methods and models are brought forward. The effectiveness/cost ratio of armament overhaul will be improved by means of the allocation methods and models. The production is powerful to support armament manage branch's reasonable decision-making.