区域变化时空预测模型的构建——以江苏省人口发展为例

Design of the Model for the Prediction of the Regional Spatial-temporal Evolution——A Case of the Population Development of Jiangsu Province

综合回归分析和时间序列分析的思想,以江苏省人口发展为例设计和建立了对区域变化进行模拟和预测的交错滚动时空回归预测模型,其基本方法是用一年或连续两年或更多年的数据作为自变量,选下一年或相隔一年或相隔多年的数据作为因变量,建立回归方程.然后用所建立的回归方程往前滚动一年或多年进行预测.建立的江苏省人口变化时空模型得出的预测值与实际值相比较,准确率在96%以上.

By means of regression and time-series analysis,the paper designs a model to predict the spatial-temporal change of regions based on the population data of Jiangsu Province.It uses previous one year or several years' data as independent variables and posterior year's data as dependent variable to establish a regression model.Then this model is used to predict future years' population.The results show that the accuracy of prediction value by this model regarding the changing pattern of the population in Jiangsu Province is above 96%.