应用多元回归分析高原山区血吸虫病防治效果影响因素

Application of multivariate regression in analysis of factors to influence the effect of schistosomiasis control in mountainous endemic areas

目的 分析高原山区影响血防效果的因素.方法 收集2005～2007洱源县34个自然村人、畜血吸虫病感染率及人群化疗覆盖率、家畜化疗覆盖率、灭螺覆盖率、卫生厕所覆盖率、卫生畜厩覆盖率、沼气池覆盖率、禁牧覆盖率等数据,采用多元回归方法进行分析.结果 以人群感染率为应变量,可得回归方程Y=7.113+0.523Xt-0.166X2,Y为人群感染率,X1为牛感染率,X2为沼气池覆盖率,回归模型具有统计学显著性.结论 家畜在高原山区血吸虫病传播中具有十分重要的作用,普及沼气池等粪便管理措施对降低人畜血吸虫感染率作用明显.

Objective To analyze the factors to influence the effect of schistosomiasis control in mountainous areas. Methods The infection rates of residents and livestock, the coverage of chemotherapy on population and livestock, molhiscacidal, sanitary latrine, methane pool and so on were collected and analyzed by multivariate regression. Results Using the infection rate of residents as a dependent variable, a regression equation was developed, in which was the infection rate of residents, was the infection rate of cattle and was the coverage of methane pool. The regression model had statistically significant. Conclusion Livestock took an important role in the transmission of schistosomiasis in mountainous areas, and the popularization of methane pool had an obvious effect on reducing the infection rate of residents and livestock.