指数平滑模型参数反分析及应用

Back-analysis of the Coefficient of Exponential Smoothing Model and Its Application in Forecast

边坡预测是基于现有的各种监测资料分析和预测未来边坡位移或应力发展趋势,从而分析判断边坡在未来某一时期内是否稳定,或者预测滑坡发生时间的过程。反分析方法已经成为目前解决复杂岩土工程的主要方法之一,在岩土工程中得到越来越多的应用。基于现场的监测时间序列,应用岩土工程反分析方法反演指数平滑预测模型的参数,建立其预测模型,并应用于高边坡的变形预测中。通过应用,论证了参数反演后的指数平滑预测模型的有效性和普适性,并发现该预测模型适合于中短期预测,建议应用该模型进行高边坡变形的短中期预测。

Forecast is the process that analyzing and predicting the trends of displacement or stresses of the slopes,based on variety of monitoring data,and then concluding that whether the slope is stable or exploring when slides will occur.Back-Analysis has become one of the most majoring methods,and its application on Geo-engineering is blooming.Based on the monitoring time series,the Back-Analysis method is put forward to retrieval coefficient of the exponential smoothing model,and its prediction model is set up,together with its application on deformation prediction of high-slope.Through the application,it demonstrates the validity and universality of the exponential smoothing model based on back-analysis of the coefficient,and discovers that the prediction model is valid for medium and short-term forecast.At last,it gives the suggestion the discussed model be used to forecast on medium and short - term occasions.