都市区城市轨道交通客流预测的相关问题探讨

Passenger Flow Forecast for Urban Rail Transit in Metropolitan Areas

当前我国都市区正处于快速形成过程中,并且大多采用交通引导开发(Transit-Oriented Development,简称TOD)的土地利用与城市发展模式,在规模、功能、用地与空间结构,以及与公共交通系统的相互作用上有别于一般意义上的城市,有其特殊性。在分析都市区城市轨道交通客流形成特点的基础上,对都市区城市轨道交通客流预测的相关问题进行了探讨,给出了相应的方法。通过我国南方某沿海都市区城市轨道交通客流预测的实例,对提出的方法进行了应用与检验。

With the long-term and rapid development of society and economy in China,some cities have become metropolitan areas as their urban population and land scales increasing continuously.Since these metropolitan areas are just in the process of rapid growth based on transit-oriented development,there are some differences in scale,function,spacial structure and interaction with public transit system between these areas and independent cities.This paper analyses the characteristics of rail transit passenger flow in Chinese metropolitan areas,discusses the related problems of passenger flow forecast in these areas,and puts forward some feasible methods which have been proved effective in passenger flow forecasting in a coastal city of southern China.