城市供水量预测的数学模型

Mathematical models for prediction of urban water supply quantity

考虑到时间、温度、水价对供水量的影响,建立了城市供水量预测的差分阻滞模型和神经网络模型,并对其预测结果进行了比较。结果表明:各模型都是可行的,且预测精度很高。考虑到用水负荷的从众心理和水价对个体用水量的影响,利用元胞自动机模型对水价与城市供水量之间的关系进行了模拟,模拟结果表明当社会从众心理一定时,水价的调整对供水量的影响有一个最有效的范围。

The three parameters,time,temperature and the price of water were considered and calculated with difference and block model and neural net model on urban water supply prediction.The result showed that the models were feasible and accurate.Cellular Automata(CA)model was applied to analyze the relationship between water price and water quantity,combined with the conformist mentality and the effect of water price on water demand.Simulation result showed that there was a most efficient range for price adjustment when conformist mentality was constant.