期权定价理论在房地产投资项目分析中的应用探析

The Application of Option Pricing Theory in Analysis of Real Estate Investment Project

在传统的房地产投资分析中,通常采用现金流折现方法,即通过投资项目的净现值或者内部报酬率来评价项目的优劣,现金流折现方法具有简单直观的优点,其应用是以企业经营持续稳定、现金流可预测为基础前提,因而也忽略了投资项目的潜在战略价值、忽视了不确定性的投资机会可能带来的投资收益以及管理柔性,该方法已无法适应日益复杂的环境。而房地产项目投资的可延迟性、分阶段性和不确定性这三个期权特性的存在,为期权定价理论在房地产项目投资分析中的应用提供了必要条件,在房地产投资决策中引入期权相对于传统的房地产投资分析能更准确地对房地产投资项目的价值做出分析和评价,也能更好地引导决策者做出正确的决策。

In analysis of the traditional real estate investment,we often adopt the discounted-cash-flow(DCF),which is evaluating the project by using Net Present Value or Internal Rate of Return(IRR).The advantages of DCF are simple and direct.Its application is based on the stability of the business and the predictable cash flow.So the approach ignores the potential strategic value of investment projects and uncertain investment chance which could bring investment income and management flexibility.DCF cold no longer...