设备状态检修中的灰色预测方法

Gray prediction method in equipment state examination and repairing

预测方法是建立在大量的统计数据基础上,而灰色预测方法只用较少的已知信息就可以对特征值的发展变化进行建模和预测.本文采用的灰色等维新息预测方法通过"弃旧纳新",可以提高预测的精度,而不使计算量增加.该方法为等间距、短间隔、长时间预测的特征值数据"爆炸"问题提供了有效的解决手段.研究证明,该方法计算简单,精度高.

The statistic prediction method is based on large numbers of historical data, whereas gray prediction method can predict the development of characteristic value and set up mold by using a little information. The equal-dimension-new-information method used in this paper can improve the accuracy of the prediction by deleting the old data and adding the new ones without adding any calculation work. This method can solve the prediction data exploding problem effectively for the characteristic value in equal distance, short interval and long time condition. Research proves that this method is simple and has a high accuracy in calculation.