中国通货膨胀持续性估计及其货币政策启示

An Estimation of Inflation Durative in China and Its Revelation for Monetary Policy

笔者对我国1990年～2006年通货膨胀率的结构变化特征与持续性进行了实证估计。结果表明,1994年第4季度是我国通货膨胀率均值的结构突变点;20世纪90年代中后期我国通货膨胀率持续性显著下降。最后,笔者从最优货币政策的角度提出了相应的政策建议。

The authors make an empirical estimate of the structural change features and durative of inflation from 1990 to 2006. The results show that the fourth quarter of 1994 is the structure break point of the mean of inflation rates and the inflation rate durative decreased significantly during the middle and late periods of the 1990s. Lastly the authors propose some corresponding policy suggestions from the perspective of optimum monetary policy.