二氧化碳减排对中国未来GDP增长的影响

Impacts of future carbon emission reductions on the Chinese GDP growth

在未来二氧化碳排放基准情景构造的基础上设计了 6种减排情景。应用中国 MARKAL- MACRO模型进行模拟分析。给出了各种减排情景下减排实施当年的国内生产总值 (GDP)损失率函数。定量地描述了各种减排情景下减排对GDP增长影响的时间模式。比较了不同减排情景下规划期内未贴现的 GDP总损失。结果表明 :当减排率为 0～ 4 5 %时实施减排约束当年的 GDP损失率在 0～ 2 .5 %之间 ,且越早开始实施减排 GDP损失率越大 ;碳减排对 GDP增长的影响在减排实施之前约 10年发生 ,并逐渐增强一直延续到实施减排以后若干年 ;若从 2 0 4 0年提早到 2 0 30、2 0 2 0或 2 0 10年开始实施碳减排 ,规划期内未贴现的 GDP总损失将分别增大 0 .5 8～ 0 .74、 1.0 0～ 1.32、 1.10～ 1.

The China MARKAL-MACRO model was used to study the impacts of carbon emission reduction on the GDP growth for future carbon emission reduction in China. Six carbon emission reduction scenarios were designed. The results show that the GDP loss rate would be in 0～2.5% for reduction rates of 0～45%. The quantitatively GDP loss predictions for the whole planning horizon for the different reduction scenarios, indicates that the GDP would start to decline at around 10 years before setting the reduction constrains, and the GDP losses would gradually increase and last for several years after setting the reduction constrains. If the start of the emission reductions is the year of 2030, 2020 or 2010 instead of 2040, then the undiscounted total GDP losses in the whole planning horizon would be 0.58～0.74, 1.00～1.32, or 1.10～1.83 times higher.